USA beruhigt Spannungen vor dem EU-Gasgipfel[en] 

Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the "frozen conflict" areas of the post-Soviet space. It is a landlocked region in the Southern Caucasus, de jure on the territory of Azerbaijan, but de facto governed by the breakaway government of the 'Nagorno-Karabakh Republic'. 

An armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan took place between 1988 until 1994 over Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving behind at least 6,000 dead. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in May 1994. Peace talks, mediated by the OSCE, have since been held between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

In August 2008, the US, France and Russia (co-chairs of the so-called 'OSCE Minsk' group) began to negotiate a full settlement of the conflict, proposing a referendum on the status of the territory. 

The effort culminated the signature in Mosciw by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his Azeri colleague Ilham Aliyev of an agreement to hold talks on a political settlement. 

In Washington, Clinton discussed the "frozen conflict" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and energy issues with her Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts, according to US State Department spokespeople. 

Analysts say the current warming of Turkey-Armenia relations (EurActiv 23/04/09) has triggered radicalisation in Azerbaijan which could pose a threat to the Nabucco pipeline project. 

Baku fears that warmer relations between Armenia and Turkey will deprive it of any leverage on Yerevan to withdraw its troops from the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies on Azeri soil. Consequently, Azerbaijan has hinted that it may block the Nabucco project by selling its gas to Russia instead of the EU (EurActiv 20/04/09). 

"Azeris reacted rather harshly to these openings. They even went so far as to start a flirtation with the Russians, suggesting they want to sell part of their gas, which would have to be used for the Nabucco project, to Russians," said Soli Ozel, an international relations analyst at Istanbul's Bligi University, quoted by VOA. 

"I guess without Azerbaijan you cannot really start it, because Iranian gas is nowhere to be seen for the moment. Iran's relations with the West are not the best. Therefore if you are going to do anything about Nabucco and start the project, you have to be able to rely on Azeri gas," Ozel said. 

Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, has also indicated his country could raise the price of gas sold to Turkey. The Turkish economy is heavily dependent on Azeri gas.

Armenia thanks Russia for 'invaluable support'

Meanwhile, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan received Mikhail Fradkov, who heads Russia's foreign intelligence service, in Yerevan. "Exchanges of views on regional development" were on the agenda, the Armenian press reported. 

Just days beforehand, Sargsyan went to Russia, where he thanked his Russian colleague Dmitry Medvedev for Moscow's "invaluable support" in solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Sargsyan said he was glad that "another country [Nagorno-Karabakh] has emerged in the South Caucasus that can definitely call Russia its strategic partner". 

Armenia has good relations with Moscow, and is among the few beneficiaries of the EU's 'Eastern Partnership' initiative not to have experienced destabilisation recently, analysts say. 

Russia dislikes the Eastern Partnership, seeing in it an attempt to substitute the Moscow-centred 'Commonwealth of Independent States' with a Brussels-focused project. Moscow is also trying to undermine the Nabucco pipeline, which is an old US political project, and is attempting to substitute it with 'South Stream', a pipeline bringing gas from Russia and the Caucasus to Europe, bypassing Ukraine. 

Aliev and his Armenian colleague Sargsyan are due to meet at the launch of the Eastern Partnership initiative on 7 May in Prague (EurActiv 05/05/09). The next day, a 'Southern Corridor-New Silk Road' summit takes place in the Czech capital, which will also be attended by both leaders. 

Turkish president Abdullah Gul will also meet separately with Sargsyan and Aliyev in Prague, the Turkish press reported. 

EU diplomats are also expected to address regional issues bilaterally with the South Caucasus leaders, European Commission sources told EurActiv. 

Soli Ozel, an international relations analyst at Istanbul's Bligi University, says plans for the European Union-backed Nabucco gas pipeline, which would run through Turkey to Europe, could fall victim to tensions between Turkey and Azerbaijan. 

"Azeris reacted rather harshly to these openings. They even went so far to start a flirtation with the Russians, suggesting they want to sell part of their gas, which would have to be used for the Nabucco project, to Russians," added Ozel. 

"I guess without Azerbaijan you cannot really start it, because Iranian gas is nowhere to be seen for the moment. Iran's relations with the West are not the best. Therefore if you going to do anything about Nabucco and start the project, you have to be able to rely on Azeri gas," said Ozel, quoted by VOA.