Einführung des Euro in den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten[en] 

According to the assessment of Monetary Affairs Commissioner  Joaquín Almunia , the new member states are a "very heterogeneous group", and yet "some common features and policy challenges can be identified":

• While income levels vary widely among the new member states, their aggregate per-capita GDP is still only about half the euro area average. The gap is gradually closing as actual and potential growth rates are generally higher than in the euro area, but fostering real convergence will remain a key policy theme for many years to come.
• Most of the new member states have also undergone a momentous transition from planned to market economies over the last 15 years. While the transition process has found its “official” completion with EU accession, some post-transition features still shape the policy environment in some countries. These include the need to complete the price liberalisation process and the need to upgrade an outdated capital stock. Structural change, for example in the financial sector, is still rapid and ongoing, and needs to be managed effectively.
• As they seek to increase their scarce productive capital through high public and private investment, most new member states also run sizeable current account deficits as the process is not fully matched by domestic savings.
• Current account sustainability is not a major concern given the generally high degree of macroeconomic stability, the significant share of FDI in current account financing and the ongoing integration into the EU economy. Still, vigilance is needed to ensure that these imbalances do not become unsustainable or make the economies vulnerable to shocks.
• A major achievement of the new member states has been the successful pursuit of disinflation. Monetary policy frameworks have been strengthened, and central banks are overall credible in their mandates to pursue price stability.  

Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) in June 2004. A central exchange rate for the three currencies (the Estonian kroon, the Lithuanian litas and the Slovenian tolar) against the euro and a fluctuation band within ERM II were established on 27 June 2004. The rates were fixed at one euro against 15.6466 Estonian kroon, 3.45280 Lithuanian litas and 239.640 Slovenian tolar. Under ERM II, the three countries' currencies must not deviate by more than 15% up or down against the euro from the agreed rates. Estonia had an average inflation rate of 3.0% in 2004, and in December 2005 the rate of inflation reached 4.1%. The government expect this figure to drop to 2.5% and 2.4% in 2006 and 2007, respectively. The general government surplus was 3.1% of GDP in 2003 and 0.5% in 2004, and gross government debt was 5.3% of GDP in 2003 and 4.8% in 2004. The projected debt figure for 2005 is 4.4%.  In Lithuania, the average inflation rate in 2004 was 1.1%, and the projected figure for 2005 is 2.8%. The general government deficit was 1.9% of GDP in 2003 and 2.6% in 2004, with 2.5% projected for 2005. The government debt figures are 21.6% of GDP (2003), 21.1% (2004) and 21.7% (2005 projection). Slovenia's average inflation rate was 3.6% in 2004, with 2.9% projected for 2005. In December 2005, the rate of inflation was 2.5% The country's general government deficit was 2.0% of GDP in 2003 and 2.3% of GDP in 2004, with 2.2% projected for 2005. Government debt was 29.5% of GDP in 2003, 30.9% in 2004, and is projected at 30.8% in 2005. The three countries hope to start using euro notes and coins on 1 January 2007.

Cyprus - The high deficit figure and public debt exceeding the Stability and Growth Pact criteria forced Cyprus to postpone its application for ERM II membership in the summer of 2004. Finally, Cyprus entered ERM II in April 2005. Cyprus's average inflation rate in 2004 was 1.9%, with 2.1% projected for 2005. The general government deficit was 6.4% of GDP in 2003 and 5.2% in 2004, with 2.9% projected for 2005. Government debt figures: 70.9% of GDP (2003), 74.9% (2004) and 71.4% (2005 projection). The country's target date for eurozone membership is 1 January 2008.

Poland - The average inflation in 2004 was 3.6%, with 3.2% projected for 2005. The general government deficit was 3.9% of GDP in 2003, 5.4% in 2004, with 4.1% projected for 2005. Government debt figures: 45.4% of GDP in 2003, 45.9% of GDP in 2004, and 47.6% of GDP in 2005 (projection). The conservatives who won the elections in September 2005 have refused to make binding decisions on the euro's adoption. Warsaw has yet to set a target date.

Malta - Malta is second on the list of new Member States with excessive budget deficit. Under a convergence plan agreed between Malta and the EU, the island has to come in line with the Stability Pact's criteria by the end of 2006. Malta joined ERM II on 2 May 2005. Malta's average inflation rate was 2.7% in 2004, with a similar figure projected for 2005. The general government deficit was 9.6% of GDP in 2003 and 5.2% of GDP in 2004, with 3.7% projected for 2005. Government debt figures: 70.4% of GDP (2003), 73.2% (2004) and 72% (2005 projection). The earliest possible date for the euro's introduction is 1 January 2008.

Latvia - The average inflation rate in Latvia was 6.2% in 2004, with 6.4% projected for 2005, dropping to 4.9% in 2006 and to 3.7% in 2007. The general government deficit was 1.5% of GDP in 2003 and 2% of GDP in 2004, with 2.8% projected for 2005. Government debt figures: 14.4% of GDP (2003), 14.6% (2004) and 15.4% (2005 projection). At the same time, Latvia remains the fastest growing economy in Europe. Its GDP is forecast to rise by 8.7% in 2005, by 7.5% in 2006 and by 7% in 2007. The country joined ERM II in May 2005. The likely date for the euro's introduction is 2008 in light of high inflation and a heavy current transactions deficit.

Slovakia -  In 2004, the average inflation rate in Slovakia was 7.4%, with 4% projected for 2005. The general government deficit was 3.7% of GDP in 2003 and 3.8% of GDP in 2004, with 3.8% projected for 2005. Government debt figures: 42.6% of GDP (2003), 43% (2004) and 44.2% (2005 projection). According to the country's draft budget for 2006, the deficit is projected at 2.9% of GDP. Slovakia joined the ERM II in late November 2005, and the country expects to adopt the euro in January 2009.

Hungary - Hungary has overshot its deficit target of 4.6 per cent of GDP for 2004 and projections for 2005 are likewise in excess of the 3 per cent of GDP deficit figure required for ERM II membership. In 2004, the average inflation rate was 6.8%, 4.2% projected for 2005. The general government deficit was 6.2% of GDP in 2003 and 5.5% in 2004. Against the 5.2% deficit projected for 2005, the actual figure is likely to exceed 7%. Government debt figures: 59.1% of GDP (2003), 59.9% (2004) and 59.5% (2005 projection). Due to the slow pace of deficit reduction, the original 2010 target date for the euro's adoption is likely to be shifted to sometime in or after 2012.

Czech Republic - The Czech government has declared its commitment to adopting the euro by 2010. However, high national debt may delay eurozone membership. The country's deficit reached 12.8% of GDP in 2003 and 5.2% in 2004, with 4.7% projected for 2005. In 2004, the average inflation rate was 2.6%, with 2.8% projected for 2005. The general government debt was 37.8% of GDP in 2003, 38.6% of GDP in 2004, and is expected to reach 39.4% in 2005.

Progress towards Maastricht (2004/2005 data) 

(Sources: Eurostat and Fitch Ratings)