Wahlen in Serbien: EU-Lager siegt, erreicht aber keine Mehrheit[en] 

The elections were considered groundbreaking as regards the country's future course. EU leaders gave strong support to the pro-European camp of President Tadic ahead of the elections by signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia, which is seen as a key step towards full membership, and promising visa facilitations. 

The nationalist forces, including Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, accused Tadic of being a traitor and said they would annul the SAA if they won the elections, fearing that such a move would imply recognition of Kosovo's independence, which all Serbian parties reject (EurActiv 30/04//08). 

Tadic even received death threats following his signature of the SAA, which brought back sad memories of 2003, when pro-Western Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated (EurActiv 06/05/08). 

The elections had become necessary as unbridgeable differences over Kosovo and the future course of the country led to the collapse of the current government (EurActiv 10/03/08). 

With nearly 98% of votes counted, Tadic's "For a European Serbia" alliance gained 38.75% of the votes - which would translate into 102 out of 250 seats - followed by Tomislav Nikolic's Radicals with 29.2% (78 seats), the State Electoral Commission said. The clear vote comes as a surprise as polls just days before the elections showed Tadic's Democratic Party and the nationalists still neck-and-neck, if anything giving the latter a slight edge. 

In his victory speech, President Tadic said his bloc had received a strong mandate to continue Serbia's march towards EU membership, but also reiterated that his new potential government would not recognise Kosovo as an independent state. 

Despite his convincing victory, Tadic's alliance still falls short of the necessary majority, and might be forced to form a coaltion with either one nationalist party or the Socialist party of former ruler Milosevic. 

The Socialists paradoxically have re-emerged as the potential kingmaker and the party that could bring Serbia back to the West after years of political irrelevance following Milosevic's ousting from power in 2000. The party, which supported Milosevic's wars against the West in the 1990s, has been trying to reinvent itself as an advocate of social justice to attract young, often poor or unemployed voters. 

Socialist leader Ivica Dacic indicated on Monday that he would open talks with other nationalist parties, but made clear that negotiations with Tadic were also on the table. 

"This is our great comeback on Serbia's political scene," he said. 

"The negotiations will not be easy but I warn everyone not to play with the electoral will of the citizens and try to take Serbia back to the isolation of the 1990s," Tadic said in reference to the former Milosevic regime. 

The political constellations do not rule out that Nicolic's nationalist Radical Party, which favours closer ties with Moscow and China, will form a coalition government with other "ideologically close" parties and the Socialists if Tadic's talks fail. 

The Radical Party, which is expected to gain 77 seats, on Monday began to woo the Socialist Party, which has 20 seats, and the nationalist party of outgoing prime minister Vojislav Kostunica, which gained 30 seats. Together the three parties would have 127 seats, enough to govern the 250-seat Parliament. 

Accusing Tadic of inciting violence by proclaiming victory, Nikolic said Serbia would either have a nationalist government - with some minority parties - or be forced to call new elections. 

Tadic countered that he would not allow the popular will to be tampered with and also ruled out that Kostunica would become Prime Minister, however, saying that he was "ready to talk with him, like with everyone else." 

Kostunica, who led an emotionally charged campaign arguing that Serbia should punish the EU for its support of an independent Kosovo by turning towards Moscow instead, is seen as one of the big losers of the election, which he triggered when dissolving the government in March. 

Analysts considered it as "political suicide” if Kostunica tried to form a nationalist coalition with the Radicals. 

"He has already lost many moderate voters and if he joins with the Radicals, even more would desert him," Srdan Bogosavljevic from the Belgrade-based Strategic Marketing Research Group told the International Herald Tribune. 

The surprise victory by Tadic's pro-European forces - in the first election since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February - was whole-heartedly welcomed by Serbian liberals and the EU as evidence that Serbs had chosen economic prosperity and political liberalism over the virulent nationalism of the past. 

The electoral commission must give its final official results by Thursday. 

"With the EU, we should not negotiate about anything anymore, without it first clearly saying that Serbia is recognised as a whole," the leader of nationalist Radical Party Tomislav Nikolic said. 

"The EU will decide by itself whether it wants Serbia as a part of it or not. We want to join the EU, but Serbia is a united state within the borders recognised by its membership in the UN.” Kosovo leaders welcomed the victory of a pro-European coalition in Serbia’s election, with President Fatmir Sejdiu saying it offered ‘a good opportunity to make the future, a future of good neighbourly relations between sovereign countries”. 

Addressing Serbia’s President Boris Tadic, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Hashim Thaci expressed his hope that Serbia would now “think more for Brussels and NATO than for Kosovo", stressing that “Kosovo is an independent, sovereign and democratic country” but that he was “ready to co-operate with Serbia as two states for a better future for our countries and our people". 

Croatia’s President Stjepan Mesic congratulated Tadic to his victory, however, saying that ‘it remains to be seen whether Serbia’s future course will remain pro-European”.

Bosnian politicians unanimously welcomed the strong showing by the pro-European bloc in Serbia’s election.

 “I believe the voters’ choice was a positive thing and I hope Serbia will soon get a democratic government resolutely determined to take it into the European Union as soon as possible,” Beriz Belkic, deputy president of the Bosniak Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, SZBH, said. 

In Montenegro, which peacefully divorced from Serbia in 2006, both government and opposition welcomed the election outcome as a sign that 'Serbs opted for economic growth and the EU.' 

In Macedonia, where fragile stability relies heavily on stability in Serbia, the outgoing cabinet welcomed the Serbian poll and promised to work with Belgrade. 

The EU's Slovenian presidency strongly welcomed the "clear victory" for pro-European forces, expressing its hopes “that a new government will soon be composed with a clear European agenda”, which “should enable Serbia to advance further on its EU path, including candidate status".

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said: "Serbia can become the engine of the Western Balkans and the EU is ready to accelerate its EU course - including candidate status." 

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana also welcomed the outcome, saying he was looking forward to the Balkan state's early progress towards EU membership. After the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU, Serbia was "now well positioned to advance rapidly," Solana added. 

The Parliament’s rapporteur on Serbia and the Western Balkans and ALDE group spokesperson, Slovenian MEP Jelko Kacin, also expressed his satisfaction the results, which “clearly showed that the “persuasive majority of Serbian citizens are pro-European and pro-reform”. 

“The EU is looking to Serbia's leaders to form a government as soon as possible in order to finish the tasks its predecessor government set itself. Number one must be to complete full cooperation with the ICTY. Only this will pave the way for Serbia to progress further towards the EU," Kacin said. 

The Chairman of the EPP-ED group in the Parliament, Joseph Daul, expressed his hope that this vote would be quickly followed by the formation of a stable and resolutely pro-European government and that the victory of President Tadic’s party will again reinforce the pro-integration policy of Serbia, leading towards the country’s candidate status. 

The U.S. Embassy in Belgrade said Serbia "has clearly demonstrated that its heart is in Europe". 

Commenting on the elctions,  France's foreign and European affairs ministers said that Serbia has chosen to be a part of Europe. 

"Serbia has clearly chosen Europe on May 11," Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in a joint statement with European affairs minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet.

"After this election we will work to make Serbia's European future come true," they said, adding that "Serbians know that they can count on Europe and France". 

Germany’s foreign minister, Frank Walter Steinmeier, also welcomed the results, saying the results "clearly express the wish of a majority of Serbian citizens for rapprochement with Europe" and that it was “the right decision” to make Serbia “a European offer”. 

Analysts called the election "a triumph of economics over emotions", and argued that the vote had swung in favor of the pro-EU alliance because of Brussels's decision in late April to sign the SA with Serbia end of last month that helped clear the way for its future membership in the EU.

Former Serbian Foreign Minister and today’s political analyst Goran Svilanovic said he expected Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) to be able to form a government quickly, even though the process could be dragged out legally until September. 

"Such a convincing DS victory over the Radicals leaves the possibility for speeding up the negotiations over a new cabinet," Svilanovic said (see also EurActiv interview with Svilanoviv 08/05/08). 

Former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia and Serbia, William Montgomery, presented a different view, saying that "the results show that the country is divided about 50-50".

"The result of this deep division will be a very long process of negotiation to form the government”, he told Radio Free Europe. 

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which monitored the elections, praised the 'overall professional manner' and 'most impressive fashion' in which it was organized. 

"The campaign environment was pluralistic and open, with extensive media coverage, but also marred by incidents of threats against leading politicians' lives," the OSCE said after the poll.