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Laut einer Analyse, die im Anschluss an den Vertrags-Gipfel des European Policy Centre (EPC) durchgeführt wurde, könne der Gipfel von vergangener Woche das Ende einer langen Phase des europäischen Integrationsprozesses kennzeichnen, während dem Fortschritt hauptsächlich durch riesige institutionelle Sprünge nach vorne erzielt worden waren.
The 22 October paper remarks that leaders appear determined to "move on" following the lengthy reform process, and are seeking parliamentary approval instead of referenda on the new treaty wherever possible.
The EPC highlight the main results of the treaty agreement:
Regarding the Polish election result, the EPC paper believes that the new government will "play a more constructive role inside the EU" and diffuse tensions with Russia by toning down the rhetoric on meat exports and postponing a decision on missile defence.
The paper predicts that with the posts of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, President of the European Parliament, Director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Head of the WTO all available at roughly the same time, June 2009 will be "a big horse-trading jamboree".
The EPC believes that personalities will be of great importance in the top jobs, with the boundaries between the Council president, Commission president and High Representative "anything but clear" in the new treaty.
The paper concludes that the new treaty is the "best possible institutional deal that could have been reached in the current circumstances" and its provisions are unlikely to be altered for a long time, meaning that the EU can now concentrate on issues of substance, symbolised by EU leaders' rapid shift to policy discussions on the summit's final day.
Moreover, the opt-outs signify a return to the "variable geometry" notion of European integration, it adds.