Werden die Iren Lissabon vernichten?[en] 

Irish Taoiseach Brian Cowen, Bertie Ahern's successor, believes the treaty is essential to protect Ireland's national interests, states the paper. 

Cowen's campaign in favour of ratification echoes the general feeling among Ireland's media, businesses and the major opposition parties, all of whom "are almost uniformly pro-European," says Brady. 

But a majority of voters hardly know what the EU does and are "instinctively suspicious about voting for an international treaty that few understand and many feel has not been explained clearly enough," the author argues. 

For this reason, Brady suggests that the Irish are likely to say 'no' to the treaty, stating: "Unless voters are reasonably certain or reassured by the politicians they trust, the treaty will fall." 

Anti-European rhetoric has not just been confined to Sinn Féin, the left-wing nationalist party, but has also been adopted by many anti-EU groups running dynamic 'no' campaigns. 

The pressure group "Libertas", led by Declan Ganley, has emerged as the "leading voice of the 'no' campaign", and intends "to foster a kind of Celtic Tiger euroscepticism," says Brady. 

If the Irish turn down the treaty, Cowen has said he is not willing to hold another referendum, says the paper. Furthermore, rejection would "sap the political will of governments to implement a difficult set of reforms to the EU institutions," believes the author. 

Brady concludes that if the treaty is rejected, EU states might abandon the idea of ratifying "wide-ranging reform treaties" in favour of "working together" as "avant-garde groups" on certain issues.