Draft emissions data bodes well for EU carbon market[fr] 

The preliminary data, released by the European Commission on 1 April, show a fall in recorded emissions of around 6% compared to 2007. Emissions stood at 1.981 billion metric tonnes (Mt), but the figure will be updated as the remaining installations disclose their data.

Poland tops the 'dirty thirty'

Poland had the questionable honour of being home to the most polluting installation. Elektrownia Bełchatów, a state-owned coal plant, emitted 30Mt of CO2 last year. It overtook RWE's coal-fired Kraftwerk Niederaussen in Germany, which was the biggest EU emitter in 2007. 

The top ten polluting installations alone accounted for approximately 10% of all the emissions in the EU ETS, around 4-5% of the bloc's total greenhouse-gas output, according to estimates by Point Carbon, a consultancy.

In the end, Poland faired better than expected. The EU carbon market picked up immediately on 3 April when data was published on the Polish companies taking part in the bloc's scheme. Carbon prices went up by 4.2% to €12.40 when the Polish data revealed that 491 of the Polish firms had a surplus of 7.5 million allowances in 2008, according to Point Carbon.

Germany had by far the biggest mismatch between the verified emissions and allocated allowances and emissions, with a difference of 84.8 Mt, followed by the UK and Italy, according to Carbon Market Data. In fact, 11 of the 30 most polluting EU plants were under German ownership and four out of the top seven belonged to German energy company RWE.

Recession expected to reduce demand in 2009

According to estimates from Deutsche Bank and Point Carbon, around two billion European emissions allowances (EUAs) were used last year, enough to bring emissions into line with the bloc's goal of reducing CO2 by 20% by 2020.

Analysts said the figures would reduce companies' need to buy offset credits, such as the UN-administered Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs).

Per Lekander of investment bank UBS told the energy information service Platts that the reduced emissions meant EU industry could meet its caps more easily with EU allowances, avoiding the need to buy offset credits.

The market expects the economic downturn to drive further reductions in demand for emission allowances in 2009, dragging down carbon prices. This has already proven to be the case for EU emissions allowances (EUAs), with industrial emitters selling their surplus credits to raise capital, sending prices plummeting to an all-time low in February (EurActiv 09/02/09).

Lekander was nevertheless optimistic about the scheme's potential to achieve emissions cuts. "In Phase I [2005-07], you may have seen 1-2% emissions savings, but now it's starting to become quite significant," he said.