US report assesses climate change security threats[fr][de] 

"Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security interests over the next 20 years," says the US National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, released on 25 June.

Much like the US, Europe will be less severely affected as such from climate change fallout, according to the report. But changing weather patterns, crop failures, flooding and droughts will increase existing problems like "poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions" in third countries. 

This in turn could lead to a 'spillover' effect, with far-reaching implications for the US and the wider global economy, says the report, produced jointly by US military and security agencies.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia are likely to be the hardest hit, raising the prospect of increased northward migration patterns as refugees flee harsher climates. This is cited as a particular concern, since "receiving nations will have neither the resources nor interest to host these climate migrants," it says.

The report is the third of its kind to come out of the US in a little over a year. The CNA Corporation, a military think tank, published a report in April 2007 warning that climate change will lead to political instability, failed states, wars over scarce resources and millions of climate refugees (EurActiv 17/04/07). And in November 2007, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) argued that climate change could spell the end of globalisation (EurActiv 08/11/07).

Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has published similar warnings in Europe. The continent must prepare for increased competition over dwindling resources, waves of climate change refugees and energy wars, according to a report presented to EU leaders during the March 2008 Spring European Council (EurActiv 11/03/08).