Irish PM confident on Lisbon revote guarantees[fr][de] 

Speaking to journalists after a lunch with Liberal Democratic EU leaders, Cowen seemed optimistic that progress would be made on giving Ireland the assurances it needs to allow the government to ask the Irish to vote on the treaty for a second time. 

"The Lisbon Treaty is about the modernisation of the institutions of the Union," he said. "If we want to deliver on major issues of the day, including employment, the economy and climate change: these are issues that are best addressed in the European Union," he added. 

Despite strong fears that the unstable political and economic situation could prompt a second 'no' vote, Cowen stressed there is wide recognition that the economic downturn needs a coordinated EU response which, he believes, "will create the right context in which to hold the second referendum". 

On Wednesday (18 March), Irish Internal Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy and the head of the EU executive's representation in Dublin, Martin Territt, told a meeting of all 27 EU commissioners that the difficult economic crisis could have serious consequences for a re-vote. 

Reportedly, an emergency budget which will be presented in April could further hit the popularity of Cowen's government, despite recent opinion polls showing that the public had swung behind the treaty. 

The taoiseach will outline the current state of play in Ireland's debate on the Lisbon Treaty, while no agreement on the remaining guarantees is expected to be reached at the summit this week. The draft conclusions foresee a deal at the June meeting instead. 

"What we need in this difficult situation is a clear timetable," Hans-Gert Pöttering, president of the European Parliament, told EU leaders yesterday (EurActiv 20/03/09). “No matter what, we want the election of the president of the Commission to take place on 15 July 2009" during the first session of the newly-elected Parliament. 

Experts agree that if clarifications are agreed in June that would not give enough time to organise and publicise a second referendum by the autumn. In recent weeks, there has been speculation that the Irish government might hold a referendum in June, alongside the European elections, to take advantage of the support shown in the polls. But Irish European Affairs Minister Dick Roche dismissed this idea, saying "holding it the same day as the European elections would provide eurosceptics with a campaign gift" (EurActiv 13/02/09).

Meanwhile, the European Commission is planning to spend 1.8 million euro on a public information campaign to boost understanding of the Lisbon Treaty. 

MEP Graham Watson, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) group in the European Parliament, said Brian Cowen had told him that the government believes it can get a majority in favour of the treaty, but would not rush things, because he wants to allow enough time for a proper debate to take root. 

"We can expect a referendum early in October. I think the date that's been talked about is 8 or 9 October," said Watson. 

"Of course, there's the question on how you make the commitment to them, that there is a commissioner [from Ireland]. But that's a matter for the June summit, not for this one. And there may be many ideas floated between now and then. But I don't think it will be discussed. Cowen doesn't really have much to report."