Summit to consider extending Commission's mandate[fr][de] 

Diplomatic sources recently confirmed to EurActiv that it is only a matter of time before the European Council and EU executive officially announce that the mandate of the current college of commissioners will be extended. 

Indeed, the announcement may be made during this week's EU summit in Brussels (19-20 March), EurActiv has learned. This will allow the 2004 group of commissioners to oversee the institutional changes required by the second Irish referendum. Should the Irish vote 'yes', there will be a legal scramble to bring Lisbon into force, incorporating the 'one commissioner per country' concession granted to Ireland in December (EurActiv 12/12/08). 

Should the Irish vote 'no', the Nice Treaty will continue to apply, meaning that a new institutional arrangement will have to be found to satisfy the treaty's rules on the make-up of the Commission. 

A 'lame duck' Commission? 

However, given that the vast majority of the current commissioners will not be reappointed, there is a possibility that the extended mandate will not result in legislative continuity, but could in fact cripple the Commission's effectiveness. 

Brussels political analysts told EurActiv that the EU executive runs the risk of waiting too long for an institutional resolution and then trying to "cram too much into last months of 2009". 

Moreover, the analysts believe the lack of a "dynamic new Commission" in the second half of the year will adversely affect the legislative output of the EU executive: "We might be looking at a 'lame duck' administration," they said. 

Uncertainties about the replacement of the current Commission arose after Ireland announced its intention to hold a second vote on the Lisbon Treaty in October. 

As the second Irish referendum coincides with the end of the Commission's five-year term, EU officials and diplomats must work out a way of preventing the EU from being thrown into a legal black hole. 

Commission uncertainty 'definitely a problem' for Swedish Presidency 

Swedish Minister for EU Affairs Cecilia Malmström, speaking in Brussels yesterday (16 March), acknowledged that these issues would present a considerable challenge to her country as it assumes the rotating EU presidency on 1 July. 

"It's objectively going to be quite a difficult presidency," she said, noting that the Commission will not be as operational as it should be during Sweden's six-month spell at the EU helm. 

Addressing a gathering at Brussels think-tank the Centre, the Swedish minister outlined the Swedish Presidency's priorities in some detail, but conceded: "I don't know how many visions we can really accomplish," given the myriad political and institutional difficulties confronting the EU in the latter half of 2009. 

Regarding the Commission's mandate extension, Malmström said: "It will definitely be a problem." Sweden hopes to reach an arrangement with the other member states to appoint a new Commission president as early as June, after the European elections. 

"Then, at least, we'd have a president to work with the outgoing Commission while consulting with the different capitals in order to form a new Commission," said Malmström, adding that this latter task "cannot be done until after the [Irish] referendum, as we won't know if it's Nice or Lisbon" steering the EU's future. 

In conclusion, she emphasised that whatever the case, "we need to have a Commission," noting that Sweden is consulting the Netherlands, which faced a similar difficulty in 2004 with the Buttiglione crisis (EurActiv 14/10/04).

However the commissioners situation unfolds, the Swedes made clear that "the very competent civil servants at the European Commission will still be there and working on the [Swedish Presidency's legislative] agenda so we can liaise with them, and we're trying to do that already". 

Finally, Malmström declined to comment on the possibility of her becoming Sweden's new commissioner, but did say: "I have a job that I like very much today."