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Le fait de devoir choisir entre sauver l’économie mondiale ou lutter contre le changement climatique n’est rien de plus qu’un mythe. C’est ce qu’ont révélé dans une analyse de janvier 2009 Jeremy Oppenheim, à la tête de l’initiative spéciale sur le changement climatique du cabinet de conseil McKinsey & Company, et Eric Beinhocker, chercheur de haut niveau au McKinsey Global Institute.
Claims that the economy "needs to be fixed first" before greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced are "unfounded," the authors declare.
The paper argues that waiting to tackle climate change will "significantly increase risks and costs" in the long term.
Oppenheim and Beinocker believe that "fixing the economy requires reducing fossil fuel dependence," otherwise there is a risk of "sowing the seeds of the next crisis".
An effective transition to a low-carbon economy can potentially "stimulate economic growth, create jobs and bring benefits to consumers," they further argue.
The authors also reject claims that reducing CO2 emissions will be too costly for consumers to bear, describing such expenditure as an "investment in the 21st century infrastructure that will pay off for generations to come".
Oppenheim and Beinocker compare investment in emission reductions to "investments made in electrification, highways and the Internet," pointing to the "high returns they had for societies in the 20th century".
Furthermore, the notion that reducing emissions will hurt trade and competitiveness is exaggerated, as "relatively few industries will be affected," the authors claim.
Nonetheless, Oppenheim and Beinhocker admit that "shifting course in the timeframe required will not be easy," conceding that countries will have to make "difficult trade-offs between addressing climate change and other priorities".
"With the right policies, market-based incentives, financing mechanisms and technologies, it should be possible for most countries to combine goals for climate security with goals for economic, energy and national security," the paper concludes.