Energieversorgung: Vier Zukunftsszenarien für die nächsten 50 Jahre

In diesem vom niederländischen Energieforschungszentrum (ECN)  in Auftrag gegeben Aufsatz analysiert J.J.C. Bruggink die europäische Dimension der energiepolitischen Veränderungen. Bruggink überprüft die Theorie, wonach die Zukunft der Energie in den Niederlanden von der Vorausahnung der möglichen Umstellungen in der europäischen Energieversorgung bestimmt werden wird. Vier verschieden Szenarien werden untersucht.

The first part of this essay deals with the plausibility of such driving events. On the basis of a critical look at the arguments of the oil peak doomsayers and the environmental anti-globalists it is concluded that both events are plausible and would have major consequences for energy transitions in Europe. 

Accordingly, the future course of European energy transitions is described in four contrasting scenarios: 

• FIREWALLED EUROPE – Oil production peaks in the period 2010-2020. No viable post-Kyoto climate change policy emerges. The European energy sector turns back to coal and nuclear in the next 50 years. 
• FOSSIL TRADE – Oil production follows oil demand smoothly in the period 2010-2020. No viable post-Kyoto climate change policy emerges. The European energy sector continues business as usual in the next 50 years. 
• SUSTAINABLE TRADE – Oil production peaks in the period 2010-2020. Post-Kyoto climate policies develop effectively. The European energy sector turns to large-scale trade in renewables in the next 50 years. 
• FENCELESS EUROPE – Oil production follows oil demand smoothly in the period 2010-2020. Post-Kyoto climate policies develop effectively. The European energy sector diversifies strongly keeping all options open for the next 50 years. 

The major part of this essay concerns the storylines for these four scenarios at the global level of socio-political landscapes, at the European level of energy regime transitions and at the national level for innovation systems. As the names of the scenarios suggest the prospects for international trade in energy are considered crucial for differentiating European futures and allowing conclusions about actionable agendas for innovation.

Contrary to mainstream thinking a smooth transition to an increasingly sustainable world driven by climate change objectives and characterised by a gradual rising share of renewables is presently unlikely. In fact, an increasing part of the world economy is moving towards a FOSSIL TRADE scenario. Only strong issue linkages between climate change and poverty reduction, between trade and environment will lead to futures involving high shares of renewable energy as exemplified in the SUSTAINABLE TRADE scenario. Moreover, energy policy makers often act as if they believe in a FENCELESS EUROPE scenario, while in reality they might as well end up unexpectedly in a FIREWALLED EUROPE scenario. 

The roles that Dutch companies can play on the European level differ fundamentally between these four scenarios. Making robust strategic choices for energy innovation policies in such contrasting scenarios is the challenge for strategic niche management in the Netherlands. In order to do so wisely, the Netherlands must follow the adagio “think globally, act locally”. It must not only consider European ambitions on the global scale, but it must also attempt to close the gap between technological innovations and profit opportunities at the local level. Alliances with regional economic interests are crucial in this respect. Given that the Netherlands is already acting as an energy gateway for Europe it has an excellent starting position. However, the future is likely to bring structural changes in energy value chains and only adequate innovation in different parts of those energy value chains can lead to success. 

The final chapter contains four artist impressions of Dutch physical landscapes on the regional level that could potentially result from the four metaphorical landscapes described in the scenarios. The scripts for development of these physical landscapes concern specific technological innovations compatible with each of the four scenarios. These visionary examples demonstrate the concrete results of choosing for specific Dutch niches in the energy value chain including specific types of institutional innovation.

Please click here to read the full ECN report.