Kroatien: Wackelige Fortschritte auf dem Weg in die EU

Die Entscheidung der EU, die Aufnahme von Beitrittsverhandlungen mit Kroatien aufzuschieben, werde das Land nicht von seinem Weg abbringen. Allerdings könnte der Aufschub dazu führen, dass sich der derzeit für 2009 erhoffte Beitritt verzögert. Kroatien habe bereits beträchtliche Fortschritte erzielt und könne bessere wirtschaftliche Leistungen vorweisen als Bulgarien und Rumänien, welche Anfang 2007 EU-Mitglieder werden könnten. Hierum geht es in dieser Ausgabe des EU-Monitors von Deutsche Bank Research.

Over the last twelve months, important decisions have been taken for Croatia’s future. This was an emotional rollercoaster ride for the country’s population. Initially, Croatia’s nomination in June 2004 as an official candidate for EU accession and the EU’s – conditional – decision to begin accession negotiations on March 17, 2005 triggered feelings of joy and satisfaction. The stability and association agreement between the EU and Croatia took effect on February 1, 2005. 

War criminals tribunal a stumbling block 

Very recently, on March 16, the euphoria felt in Croatia fizzled out. On the basis of a new report, in which the chief prosecutor at the UN International Criminal Tribunal for Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) accused Croatia of failing to cooperate with the prosecution, the EU decided to postpone the start of accession negotiations indefinitely. However, the European Union has also made it quite clear that the door to Europe remains open for Croatia. Accordingly, negotiations will begin immediately after the ICTY has confirmed full cooperation on the part of the government in Zagreb. 

The EU’s strict stance has met with irritation and criticism not only in Croatia but also among its Member States. In fact, this is the first time that a decision on accession negotiations with a candidate country has been made not by the EU itself but de facto by an external body. As a result of the growing tensions between Croatia and the ICTY and the EU over the past months, support for EU membership among the Croatian population has fallen substantially since the start of 2005 – to less than 50%. 

The country’s relationship with the EU will probably be characterised for some time by anger and disappointment. Sooner or later, though, the majority of Croatians will likely realise that in the long run EU membership offers considerable advantages, while in an alternative scenario as a political outsider in Europe it would be sure to lose out. We therefore continue to expect Croatia to join the EU over the medium term. We think the country will be ready for admission in 2009 at the very earliest; the postponement of accession negotiations, however, has made a later accession date increasingly likely. 

To read the analysis in full, visit the Deutsche Bank Research website.