Ungarns neuer Präsident: Die Weisheit der Wahl von Solyom

Judit Szakacs schreibt in Transitions Online über Ungarns nächsten Präsidenten, Laszlo Solyom, der in den 80er Jahren Umweltaktivist und in den 90er Jahren Verfechter der „unsichtbaren Verfassung“ Ungarns war.

Betting on the identity of the next president has never been popular among Hungarian punters – and for good reason since Hungary’s president is chosen by parliament, ensuring that the ruling party or coalition has in the past forced through its candidate. That should also have been the case this year, as the governing coalition again had a majority. However, after months and weeks of tactical maneuvering, secret negotiations, information and leaks of disinformation, it was impossible to predict the winner even after the votes had been cast on 7 June – and the result was the election of the opposition candidate Laszlo Solyom, a former head of the Constitutional Court. 

The governing coalition’s debacle began with its inability to find a candidate that both parties could support. Pundits spent months guessing about the potential nominees; many names were proposed – or promoted by would-be presidents – in a debate that became increasingly farcical. 

In the end, the Socialist Party (MSZP), the senior member of the coalition, simply decided to put its backing behind its candidate, Katalin Szili, the speaker of parliament. The MSZP’s decision, made at a party congress on 15 April, ignored an earlier statement of the coalition’s junior member, the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), that it would not support Szili, who, for their taste, was “too much of a party politician.” Hungary has a parliamentary rather than presidential system, and the president’s position is mostly ceremonial. His or her role is to represent “the unity of the nation” and that meant, the SZDSZ reasoned, that a leading party politician could not fulfil the role.

From that point on, the Socialist Party (MSZP) and the SZDSZ appeared to be involved in a game of brinkmanship. Having snubbed the SZDSZ, the Socialists and Szili could not count on SZDSZ votes; the SZDSZ, for its point, had to weigh carefully the political costs of going against its coalition partner in a key vote just 11 months before general elections scheduled for May 2006. 

The coalition eventually tipped over the brink partly through stubbornness, but also thanks to a tactical coup by Fidesz, the largest right-wing opposition party. A party not known for making bipartisan gestures, it trumped the coalition by plumping for Solyom after he emerged as the runner-up in an unofficial poll commissioned by Fidesz to find the “people’s presidential nominee.” He was beaten only by the current president, Ferenc Madl, who, however, refused to run again.

In late May, Fidesz officially backed Solyom, as too did the similarly conservative Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF), which was co-founded by Solyom in 1987.

Solyom had first emerged as a contender when his name was put forward by an environmental group, Vedegylet, and by 110 public intellectuals. 

Unwilling to support Szili and believing Solyom to be acceptable option, but not wanting to go against the coalition partner, SZDSZ members of parliament signalled on 30 May that they would not cast their votes. Although many predicted that either the SZDSZ would give in or that Szili would stand down at the last moment, neither side gave way in the week before the election.

Even with SZDSZ support, Szili would have been unable to win a quick victory. In the first two rounds, a two-thirds majority of votes cast is needed. The governing coalition has 198 seats in the 386-member parliament. Everything, then, depended on the third and final round, where a simple majority of votes cast was needed. 

In all, 17 of the 20 SZDSZ members stood firm, allowing Solyom to emerge victorious, by 185 to 182 votes.

The Socialists have 178 seats in the 386-member parliament, compared with Fidesz’s 169 and the MDF’s eight. There are also 11 independent members of parliament.

Solyom will take up his new office on 5 August.

To read the article in full, visit the Transitions Online website.