Analyse : Les coûts des politiques environnementales de l'UE pour les entreprisess

Un projet mené par un consortium européen a comparé les estimations ex-ante et ex-post des coûts de la règlementation sur l’environnement et a proposé certaines recommandations pour améliorer leur exactitude. 

The impact of implementing environmental policies is central to the debate on economic competitiveness and environmental sustainability. The project reports conclude that some ex-ante overestimation is inevitable, and that the new EU regulatory flexibility could make accurate predictions even more difficult. Nevertheless, a number of recommendations are offered which, the authors say, could improve accuracy levels:

• Cost estimates should draw on as many sources as possible.
• As green policies become more flexible, cost estimates should be updated frequently. « Feedback loops » should be set up to update cost predictions in light of experience. 
• This could eventually lead to « rules of thumb » for factoring as yet unknown technological innovation, economies of scale and « learning curve effects » into initial cost estimates.
• It should be mandatory to analyse actual, as well as predicted, costs of policies so comparisons can be made and lessons learned. « Before-and-after » comparisons must compare like with like.
• Sensitivity analyses should be used to identify the parameters most likely to influence costs.  A better understanding of business behaviour and likely responses to policy is also urged.
• Finally, costs must be clearly defined and should always include avoided costs such as lower energy usage.