Crise du secteur de l’aviation : une consolidation, mais pas de bain de sang

Selon Eric Heymann de DB Research, la hausse des prix du pétrole combinée à la baisse de la demande frappe plus violemment le secteur de l’aviation que l’essentiel des autres secteurs.

According to International Air Transport Association predictions, the aviation industry will experience « net losses of more than USD 9bn in 2008 and 2009 combined, » reports Heymann in a September paper. Bilateral agreements and the practice of « marrying slots to the national ownership of airlines » also represent a significant obstacle to mergers, he points out. 

But the ensuing « presence of poorly capitalised companies in the market » impacts negatively on commercially healthy airlines, claims Heymann, calling for the state to make a « faster and more consistent exit from the aviation market ». He welcomes recent deregulation efforts such as the EU-US Open Sky regulation. 

The author warns that « if large sums of public money continue to be spent providing financial support for individual carriers, there is a risk that the worst-case scenario will materialise of efficiently operating airlines being forced out of the market, » stating: « This cannot be in the interest of customers or taxpayers. » 

Decades of overcapacity means « further consolidation in the aviation industry is overdue, » concludes Heymann. Yet he does not believe consolidation will result in a « bloodbath » for airlines, mainly because « state aid for perennially loss-making airlines » is slowing things down.