L'excédent de liquidité au niveau mondial

Sebastian Becker du pôle recherche de la Deutsche Bank soutient que l’excédent de liquidité au niveau mondial a contribué à la bonne santé des marchés boursiers et obligataires, sans conduire à l’inflation du prix à la consommation ou à l’inflation du prix des actifs.

With this study, Becker assesses what is meant by global liquidity, to measure it and to diagnose if it has become excessive in ‘Euroland’, the US, the UK and Japan. To reach this goal he investigated the ratio between money and nominal GDP growth over time and found that the eurozone, Japan and the UK have created the highest stock of excess liquidity since 1996. According to the writer, in the euro countries and the UK in particular, there is no sign of a slowdown. 

Besides a positive effect on stock markets, the excess liquidity has led to more expensive government bonds and overheated real-estate markets in the UK and US, argues Becker. He proposes two scenarios to normalise the global liquidity levels in the long term: 

• One based on continued global tightening, and; 
• the other based on expanding nominal GDP related to money stocks. 

Becker states that the second scenario would be the more « benign » for financial markets, but he perceives a combination of both as a more realistic likelihood.