Prophétie, politique et processus européens

Dans une note de briefing précédant la conférence annuelle du Centre européen des affaires publiques (ECPA), Tom Spencer, son directeur exécutif, examine les priorités qui gouverneront l’agenda des futures présidences européennes.

The author writes that at the midpoint of the Union’s five-year cycle, the « European Commission is in peak production-mode, knowing that complex or contentious issues need to be launched now if they are to have any chance of completion », while for MEPs « the clock has already begun to tick with the growing awareness of yet another clash with the selectorate, if not with the voters of Europe » Meanwhile, the Council of Ministers are busy surveying what « enlargement and enfeebled leadership has wrought, while brewing feasible ways to end the gridlock ».

Looking ahead, Spencer analyses the prospectives for the current German Presidency and the upcoming Portuguese, Slovene, French and Czech Presidencies and beyond. 

The author believes that « relaunching the European Union depends equally on new leadership and on a shared vision of the story which Europe needs to tell itself », and continues by examining the prospects for a resolution to the constitutional « imbroglio ». As regards climate change, he predicts that it will become « the continuing preoccupation of EU leaders ». 

However, Spencer identifies problems for the EU in its south and east, where Europe’s number-one priority « will be how to ensure that the Arab part of the Islamic world is not so destroyed by environmental and energy competition that its shaky states collapse into failure, triggering ever more migration and terrorism ».

The ECPA conference will be held on 8 March 2007, at which Spencer predicts further prophecies on the EU’s immediate future.