Traité de Lisbonne : l’Irlande n’est pas le seul problème

Alors que l’électorat irlandais semble estimer unanimement que son « non » au traité de Lisbonne devrait être respecté, il est pourtant tout aussi nécessaire de respecter le fait qu’une majorité substantielle des Etats membres ont approuvé le texte. C’est ce qu’estime Peadar ó Broin, chercheur à l’Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), dans une analyse pour le European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN).

To overcome this, ó Broin says that the Irish government can either « negotiate ‘special arrangements’ that would accompany the Lisbon Treaty, draft a stand-alone protocol, use the Irish Parliament as a means by which to ratify parts of the [text] or hold a second referendum ».

Ó Broin admits, though, that it is not clear whether any of these options would allow Ireland to ratify the treaty, since none of them « have been significantly debated in the public domain ».

As for Germany, Sebastian Kurpas, a research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), says that although the Bundestag and the Bundesrat have voted in favour of the Lisbon Treaty, its ratification is not yet guaranteed, as the Constitutional Court has asked President Horst Köhler to « refrain from signing the ratification law » before the court has issued its verdict on the constitutionality of the treaty. Therefore, Kurpas argues that from a technical point of view, Germany « never ratified » the treaty.

According to Piotr Maciej Kaczy?ski, another research fellow at CEPS, the Czech Republic is experiencing similar difficulties to Germany, and getting 60% of the senators to vote in favour of the treaty will be « difficult ».

On top of this, Kaczy?ski says that it is open to question whether the Czech Republic will ratify the treaty given President Václav Klaus’s declaration that it was « dead » following the Irish rejection.

With regard to Poland, even though both chambers of the parliament voted in favour of the treaty, Kaczy?ski argues that ratification is not guaranteed, with President Lech Kaczy?ski arguing that it is « pointless » to due so given the Irish rejection.

The researcher believes there is still an open legal question over « whether the president is obliged to ratify an international treaty when the required parliamentary consent has been given to him ». Kaczy?ski argues that Poland’s difficulties will remain as long as there is « no ruling on this question by the Constitutional Court ».

In view of these ratification difficulties, the authors conclude that « Ireland is not the only problem » facing the Lisbon Treaty.