Wirtschaftliche Umstrukturierung und Entwicklungen am Arbeitsmarkt in den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten

Dieser Artikel von Michael
Landesmann, Hermine Vidovic
und Terry Ward , der vom Vienna
Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
veröffentlicht wurde, liefert eine umfangreiche Übersicht über die
Entwicklungen an den Arbeitsmärkten der neuen
EU-Mitgliedstaaten.

Executive summary

Aggregate developments in the labour markets of the
NMS 

• In contrast to the old EU where employment rates increased
  steadily over the past decade, these show a declining trend in most
  of the new Member States. Only Hungary starting from a very low
  level shows a modest recovery from the mid-1990s, the Baltic States
  from 2000 onwards. By 2003 only the Czech Republic recorded a
  higher employment rate than the EU-15, Slovenia and Estonia
  resembled the EU-25 pattern, while there was a remarkable gap in
  Bulgaria and Poland. 
• However, measured in full-time equivalents the gaps in
  employment rates between the new and old Member States are much
  smaller due to the low share of part time employment in the
  NMS. 
• Disparities exist also between the NMS and the EU-15 with
  regard to employment rates for different age and gender groups.
  Female employment rates remained above the EU average in a number
  of countries, exceptions being Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The
  latter two show, together with the Czech Republic, the most
  pronounced reduction between 1996 and 2003. However, over the past
  few years we observed upward developments in Hungary, Bulgaria and
  the three Baltic States. The full-time equivalent (FTE) employment
  rates for women exceeded the EU-15 level in all NMS but
  Poland. 
• By contrast, all NMS but the Czech Republic reported lower male
  employment rates than the EU-15. Suffering from declines in the
  second half of the 1990s male employment rates started to grow
  again in most NMS from 2000 onwards. Measured by FTE male
  employment rates are in all countries except the Czech Republic
  significantly lower than in the EU-15. 
• As regards young people, employment rates have been on the
  decline from the late 1990s and were in 2002 by 16 percentage
  points lower than in the EU-15. A substantial part of the drop was
  caused by extended education. E.g. in the 16-18 age group in 2003
  90% of the total was in education in the NMS, while only 68% in the
  EU-14 (excluding Germany). These gaps are narrowing from age group
  to age group. As for the employment rate of the 20 to 24 year old
  people we found a similar value for the NMS-4 as for the EU South.
  The worse record for NMS-8 is almost entirely accounted for by
  Poland. 
• Also employment rates of older workers are well below the EU-15
  average, which might be partly explained by the lower statutory
  retirement age in the NMS than in the old EU, but also by early
  retirement programmes implemented in the 1990s and the increased
  use of disability pensions in order to combat
  unemployment. 
• In contrast to the old EU where part time work plays an
  important role this form of employment is almost negligible in the
  NMS. Relatively higher shares of part time work are to be found in
  countries with a large agricultural sector, particularly Romania,
  Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Overall, the NMS are resembling the
  pattern observed in the EU-South (Greece, Portugal, Spain) where
  part time employment plays a subordinate role too. One of the
  reasons behind these developments is the underdeveloped services
  sector in the NMS.
• Unemployment levels in the NMS are almost double those in the
  old EU. The incidence of unemployment varies from country to
  country. Roughly speaking the NMS/CC can be divided into three
  groups according to their unemployment record: In the first group
  consisting of Hungary; Slovenia, Romania and the Czech Republic the
  unemployment rate (6-8%) is well below the EU-15 average, while the
  second group comprises the high unemployment countries Poland and
  Slovakia; the third group including the Baltic States and Bulgaria
  ranges in between.
• Regarding the features of unemployment, long-term unemployment
  has become a serious problem all over the region. Levels are much
  higher than in the EU-15, but seemingly the further increase came
  to a halt in most countries. Hungary is an outlier with a share of
  less than 40% long-term unemployed in the total number of jobless,
  while all other countries report shares between 50% in the Czech
  Republic and 65%! in Slovakia. In the long run we might expect an
  exit from the labour market for many of those registered as
  long-term unemployed.
• Youth unemployment in the NMS is more than twice as high as
  both the national average of the respective countries and the EU-15
  average. However, calculating the youth unemployment rate based on
  the age group between 20-24, the picture changes substantially with
  the unemployment of 17.5% in the NMS-7 ranging between the EU-15
  and EU-South levels.
• Inactivity is still on the increase in most of the NMS. Between
  1998 and 2003 activity rates fell in all countries, exceptions
  being Hungary and Slovakia. Activity rates fell most among young
  people, shrinking between 2003 and 1998 by 9 and 7 percentage
  points for those aged between 15 and 19 years and 20-24 years
  respectively.

Sectoral employment patterns 

• Over recent years job creation in the NMS was mainly
  concentrated in the tertiary sector, whereas employment in
  agriculture and industry fell in all countries. From a comparative
  perspective the NMS exhibit still a much lower portion of services
  sector employment than the EU-15, but are close to EU-South
  patterns. The differences are less pronounced in the community
  services segment than in market services.
• However, we found also some signs of recovery in manufacturing
  employment, particularly in Hungary, and to a lesser extent in
  Slovakia and some of the Baltic States. This does not apply to
  Poland. These favourable developments seem to be driven by the
  strong inflow of FDI in the manufacturing sector.
• In four countries – Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Latvia –
  job creation in the services and/or manufacturing sectors could
  offset job creation in other sectors over the past years.
• In general, the NMS still have a relatively large industrial
  sector, particularly in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia.
  On the other hand there is still a high portion of agricultural
  employment in Poland and Lithuania (about 19% each), in Bulgaria
  (25%) and in Romania where it was 36% in 2003. In these countries
  agriculture has had an important function as a buffer against
  unemployment, absorbing workers laid off from other sectors.
• Employment gains in the services sector were mainly
  concentrated in the market services segment in all countries.
  Though market services activities are concentrated in low-skill
  segments – trade, tourism and transport – employment gains were –
  apart from trade – mainly reported in the high-skill segments,
  where there is still a wide gap between the NMS and the EU-15
  average.
• Between 1998 and 2003 increases in market services were
  reported for all countries, but the Czech Republic and Romania.
  Within market services job creation in the business services
  sub-segment, particularly ‘other business services’ (legal,
  architectural and engineering services, advertising) contributed
  most to the overall job growth over that period. By contrast, we
  observe employment reductions in R&D, which were in absolute
  terms most pronounced in the Czech Republic and in Slovakia,
  whereas jobs in that category rose significantly in Hungary.
• Jobs in tourism (hotels and restaurants) grew most in Hungary
  and Slovakia, but fell in Slovenia and the Czech Republic between
  1998 and 2003. Overall, tourism absorbs a lower portion in the NMS
  than both in the EU-15 and in the southern EU countries
  (traditional tourist destinations). Only Bulgaria exhibits a higher
  share of employed in tourism than the EU-15.
• Employment in financial intermediation stagnated over the past
  years characterized by job destruction in the banking sector
  (except Slovenia and Latvia) and job creation in the insurance,
  pension funding and auxiliary activities. In 2003 employment in
  financial intermediation accounted for 1.8% in the NMS versus 3.3%
  in the EU-15. Considering the still limited supply of financial
  instruments in the NMS, a convergence towards EU-15 levels seems to
  be feasible both in the banking and insurance sectors.
• Transport and telecom is the only declining employment segment
  within market services in the whole region, with job losses
  occurring in all sub-segments. The drop was felt in all transport
  sub-categories, except auxiliary transport activities and
  activities of travel agencies. However, the bulk of job losses was
  reported in postal services and telecom, excepting Slovenia and
  Latvia. Transport and telecom is the only segment employing a
  higher proportion in all NMS (but Romania) than in the EU- 15.
  Notable differences exist in the employment share in land
  transport, which in several NMS (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia,
  Estonia and Latvia) is twice as high as in the EU-15.
• Community services sector employment grew in all NMS except
  Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania caused by increases in almost all
  sub-segments, most pronouncedly in health/social work and public
  administration. By contrast, employment in education fell in a
  number of countries. Overall, the proportion employed in the NMS
  community services sector is smaller than in the EU-15, but higher
  than in the EU-South – employment levels in that segment are
  highest in Hungary and Estonia and lowest in Slovenia. Public
  administration employs a similar portion as EU-South in the NMS as
  a whole; Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia already resemble the EU-15
  pattern. The proportion employed in education is higher in the NMS
  than both the EU-15 and EU-South. Health and social work employment
  is above the EU South but significantly lower than in the
  EU-15. 

Educational attainment and employment 

• The educational composition of the NMS labour force is biased
  in favour of medium-educated (i.e. those with completed secondary
  schooling); relative to the EU-15 the NMS show smaller shares of
  both people with completed tertiary education (the ‘highly
  educated’) and those who did not complete a secondary degree (the
  ‘loweducated’). Within the group of ‘medium-educated’ there is a
  higher proportion of vocationally trained as compared to those with
  completed general secondary training compared to the
  EU-15. 
• As regards employment rates, there are similar employment rates
  of the higheducated in the NMS and the EU-15, also similar rates
  for the medium-educated in the more advanced NMS-4 and somewhat
  lower rates in the NMS-8, but very low employment rates (and,
  conversely, high unemployment rates) for the low-educated
  (exceptions are Slovenia and Romania). 
• There are a number of structural features accounting for these
  differences in employment rates: The primary sector (largely
  agriculture) accounts for a high proportion of the employment of
  the low-educated and this sector has lost jobs on a massive scale
  in most NMS; furthermore there is an ‘under-representation’ of the
  low-educated in the NMS both in the industrial and in the market
  services sectors compared to the EU-15. The medium-educated, on the
  other hand, are particularly strongly represented in the labour
  forces of the industrial sector which in turn specializes (in
  comparison to the EU-15) in medium-skill segments. This provides
  job opportunities for the medium-educated, however, strong
  productivity catching-up in the industrial sector affects these
  employment opportunities negatively. Finally, the highly educated
  are particularly strongly in demand in the high-skill segment of
  the market services sector (financial intermediation and business
  services) which has expanded strongly both in the NMS and the EU-15
  and in publicly provided services (in fact, there is a
  comparatively very strong allocation of the highly educated in
  public services and very low allocation to the industrial
  sector).
• Overall, the very bad job situation of the low-educated in the
  NMS seems to be a function of three factors: a high proportion of
  these are employed in agriculture and this sector is shrinking; a
  relatively weak representation of low-educated particularly in the
  labour-intensive lower-skill segments of the industrial and market
  services sectors; and, linked to the above, a tendency to
  substitute medium-educated for low-educated in a situation in which
  medium-educated are rather plentifully available and the general
  labour market situation provides sufficient slack.
• An analysis of occupational structures in the NMS supports this
  picture: there is, in comparison to the EU-15, a smaller share of
  blue-collar low-skilled jobs in agriculture, industry and market
  services i.e. the type of jobs which could provide job
  opportunities for the low-educated. Also in public services, there
  is a relative under-representation low-skilled white collar jobs
  compared to the situation in the EU-15. This supports the picture
  of a substitution of low-educated by medium-educated.
• Finally, an analysis of changes in the structure of the labour
  force over the more recent period (1998-2003) and of the younger
  age cohorts shows significant adjustments in the educational
  characteristics of the labour force in the direction of an
  ‘up-grading’ in educational attainment; however, the speed of
  change on the demand side is such that the labour market position
  of the low-educated still further deteriorates. Furthermore, we
  found in an age cohort analysis that in a number of respects
  educational attainment structures are adjusting less in the NMS
  than in the EU-15.

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