De Copenhague à Copenhague, vers l'Union à 25
From Copenhagen to Copenhagen towards the Union of 25
Denmark having already defined in Copenhagen in June 1993 all preliminary political and economic criteria – necessary for the applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe to join the EU – and now chairing the EU since July 1, is aiming at concluding accession negotiations before the European Council in Copenhagen in December 11/12, 2002, in order to finish off of the Enlargement process.
During the next six-month period, four stages will condition a successful conclusion of the accession negotiations that entered their final and decisive phase:
1) On October 16, the Commission will submit its annual report on Enlargement and its Regular Reports on each of the 13 applicant countries, together with a list of those countries considered being « ready » – probably 10.
2) Thus, the European Council in Brussels (scheduled on October 24/25), will for the first time debate on the list of the Commission, but especially is above all the ultimate limit for the 15 Members to achieve an agreement on the financial package of Enlargement and to transmit a joint position to the applicant countries. Yet, positions have remained unchanged for the last six months: Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden have not only been rejecting the total amount proposed by the Commission, considered being too high (42,59 bn for the 10 new members between 2004 and 2006) bu also the phasing in proposal for agricultural direct assistances in the applicant countries (from 25% in 2004 to 100% in 2013). The situation is in abeyance until the German elections (September 22), which will leave only one month to make a success of this budgetary « marathon ».
3) The European Council in Copenhagen (December 11/12) should see the conclusion of the negotiations between the 15 Members and the candidates on the budgetary package, but also several major political decisions. A political support should be addressed to Romania and Bulgaria, which will not belong to this first wave, to maintain the dynamics of their negotiations. A decision will have to be taken on the accession of Cyprus, divided since 1974: the EU encouraged Greek Cypriot and Cypriot Turkish leaders to seize this unique opportunity to achieve a political settlement. Lastly, the EU will have to decide on the progression of the Turkish candidature (Ankara wishes to open accession negotiations), by taking into account its recent reforms with respect to the political criteria of Copenhagen (abolition of the death penalty, use of the Kurdish language).
4) Remains a sword of Damocles, the second Irish referendum to ratify the Treaty of Nice, a necessary step for the institutional dispositions enabling an enlarged EU to work effectively to come into force. In Seville, Ireland obtained a declaration reasserting that the Nice dispositions do not infringe its neutrality. Planned at the end of October/beginning of November (the exact date is not fixed yet), the referendum will have a strong impact on the end of the negotiations: a success would give an acceleration for Copenhagen, a new failure is likely to weigh heavily on the calendar of Enlargement. In short, the Danish Presidency will need the entire support of the Member States, the Commission and the applicant countries to finish off and make this historical challenge, « from Copenhagen to Copenhagen » a success.
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