L'UE et son voisin gênant : le temps d'une nouvelle politique pour la Biélorussie

Cette nouvelle analyse du Centre for European Reform (CER), par Charles Grant et Mark Leonard, plaide en faveur d’une nouvelle politique européenne à l’égard de la Biélorussie. L’UE doit offrir au régime des incitations importantes en termes de réforme, mais doit également faire savoir clairement qu’à l’avenir, toute répression entraînera une réponse sévère. Elle doit intensifier ses efforts pour soutenir la société civile et revoir ses méthodes d’aide aux ONG. Elle doit également engager un débat avec la Russie sur les moyens les plus efficaces pour favoriser un programme de réformes en Biélorussie.

CER Summary

• On March 19th the people of Belarus – a small but strategically important country – vote in a presidential election. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is certain to claim a landslide victory. Although the election has not been free and fair, widespread popular protests – of the sort that led to Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’ – are unlikely. 
• The EU’s current policy of ‘conditional engagement’ has failed to improve the situation in Belarus. The EU has withheld favours and cut off contacts, but the regime has become steadily more authoritarian. 
• The EU needs a new policy. It should offer big incentives to encourage the regime to reform, but also make clear any further repression would provoke a tough response. It should step up its efforts to support civil society and overhaul its methods for aiding NGOs. 
• European leaders should tell Russia that the EU has a legitimate interest in how Belarus is governed. But the EU should also stress that it does not see Belarus as a pawn in a geopolitical game. Both the EU and Russia would benefit from a stable, prosperous and democratic Belarus.

To read the policy brief in full, visit the Centre for European Reform website.