Die Ursachen für Tod und Krankheiten weltweit in den nächsten 25 Jahren

PLoS Medicine, eine internationale Fachzeitschrift für Medizin, hat kürzlich einen Artikel zum Thema Prognosen zur weltweiten Sterblichkeit und der Belastung durch Krankheiten für die Jahre 2002 bis 2030 veröffentlicht.

Colin Mathers and Dejan Locar (from the World Health Organization, WHO) have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease up to 2030 starting from the WHO estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. According to the authors, the article „addresses the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby supports international health policy and priority setting“.

They predict that:

• Life expectancy will increase around the world; 
• the proportion of people dying from non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and cancer will increase; 
• deaths from infectious diseases will decrease overall but HIV/AIDS deaths will continue to increase;
• more people will die from tobacco-related diseases than HIV/AIDS in 2015. 

The authors also predict that „by 2030, the three leading causes of illness will be HIV/AIDS, depression, and ischaemic heart disease (problems caused by a poor blood supply to the heart)“. 

To acess the full article on PLoS Medicine’s website, click here.