Lösungen für sichere weltweite 'überschüssige' Liquidität

Sebastian Becker von der Deutschen Bank Research ist der Meinung, dass die weltweite ‚überschüssige‘ Liquidität positiv zu den gut funktionierenden Aktien- und Anleihemärkten beigetragen und nicht zu einer Inflation der Verbraucherpreise oder der Vermögenspreise geführt habe.

With this study, Becker assesses what is meant by global liquidity, to measure it and to diagnose if it has become excessive in ‚Euroland‘, the US, the UK and Japan. To reach this goal he investigated the ratio between money and nominal GDP growth over time and found that the eurozone, Japan and the UK have created the highest stock of excess liquidity since 1996. According to the writer, in the euro countries and the UK in particular, there is no sign of a slowdown. 

Besides a positive effect on stock markets, the excess liquidity has led to more expensive government bonds and overheated real-estate markets in the UK and US, argues Becker. He proposes two scenarios to normalise the global liquidity levels in the long term: 

• One based on continued global tightening, and; 
• the other based on expanding nominal GDP related to money stocks. 

Becker states that the second scenario would be the more „benign“ for financial markets, but he perceives a combination of both as a more realistic likelihood.