Analyse : Inverser le phénomène de balkanisation? L'intégration commerciale dans l'Europe du Sud-Est

Dans ce document de travail de CEPS, son auteur, David Kernohan, analyse le problème lié au fait que la libéralisation des échanges en Europe du Sud-Est est moins avancée qu’il le faudrait.  

Research from the World Bank suggests that trade openness was a major contribution in the transition of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. However, there is concern that such openness is not evident in South East Europe, and in the former Yugoslav Republics in particular. The study focuses on the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential.

The paper finds that trade patterns are problematic due to the small size of many of the countries in the region.  In many cases, there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours and often the level of trade is smaller than expected. Plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. The author concludes that a better option would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.

To read the full paper, click here.