Evaluer le partage des efforts pour les réductions des émissions de gaz à effet de serre

Le cadre de la politique climatique post-2012 doit inclure plus de pays déterminés à réaliser des réduction d’émissions plus importantes à l’avenir. C’est ce qu’a écrit Tommi Ekholm et d’autres experts du centre finlandais VTT (Technical Research Centre) dans une analyse de 2008.

However, the « capability and responsibility of countries to respond to emission reductions vary, in particular between developing and developed countries, » the authors point out. 

A « differentiation of commitments to reduce emissions needs to take place, » they thus claim. 

A cap-and-trade system would help achieve this by « separating the issues of efficiency and equity in mitigation efforts » and « turning the question of equity between countries to a question of how initial allocation of emission rights should be made, » the experts argue. 

Nevertheless, the VTT researchers admit that the fundamental problem with their approach is the « trade-off between the ability to consider national circumstances and a straightforward and transparent procedure to define the emission allocation ». 

For a climate change mitigation strategy to be as cost-effective as possible, the authors predict that most of the emission reductions would have to come « from the energy sector and industry, due to the phasing out of fossil fuels ». But to succeed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions significantly, they insist that « large involvement from all economic sectors is needed too ». 

The experts also expect mitigation costs to increase in future, as « more expensive mitigation efforts will have to be carried out with higher economic growth and energy demand ». 

Furthermore, market imperfections are likely to result in « a doubling of global mitigation costs in 2020 » if efficient allowance markets are to be created, they say. 

Given future uncertainties, the authors admit that it is almost impossible to « predict the actual effort levels of different countries ». But they emphasise the importance of having « detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potential of different countries » to help make accurate predictions. 

The researchers believe « most developing countries would financially benefit from a cap-and-trade system ». 

Nevertheless, « market imperfections might distort the efficiency » of such a system and the ability to ensure « equity and efficiency » in greenhouse gas reductions might not last, the authors conclude.