CER: Scheitern der Doha-Verhandlungen würde Glaubwürdigkeit der WTO untergraben

Ein Zusammenbruch der Doha-Runde würde die Zukunft der WTO selbst in Frage stellen, schreibt Aurore Wanlin in einem Policy Brief des Think Tanks Centre for European Reform. Die Organisation sei noch immer jung und bedürfe einer Reform ihrer Strukturen. Die Industrieländer werfen der WTO vor, die wirtschaftliche Bedeutung ihrer Mitgliedstaaten nicht zu berücksichtigen. NGOs und Entwicklungsländer beschuldigen sie, wirtschaftliche Liberalisierung auf Kosten von Entwicklung und sozialer und ökologischer Zielsetzungen durchsetzen zu wollen. Doha ist die erste WTO-Verhandlungsrunde. Ihr Erfolg würde die Position von Generaldirektor Pascal Lamy stärken und interne Reformen erleichtern. Ein Scheitern dahingegen würde die Organisation schwächen und Gegnern des multilateralen Handels Auftrieb geben.

There is a fundamental difference between the Doha and previous trade rounds: that is the emergence of developing countries as key players, in particular the fast-growing economies of Brazil, China and India. Cancún showed that it was no longer enough for the EU and the US to agree a deal and expect the rest of the WTO countries to fall into line, writes research fellow Aurore Wanlin in a policy brief for the think tank the Centre for European Reform.

But developing countries do not form a homogeneous group. For example, the G20 group was formed to give major developing economies such as Brazil and India greater clout in trade talks. But while Brazil has a competitive agricultural industry and wants greater market access, the Indian government fears that agricultural liberalisation will devastate its millions of subsistence farmers. That makes it very difficult for trade negotiators to find the common ground needed to move the round forward.

Another reason for the lack of leadership is that some countries are not playing a role proportionate to their economic weight. China has a lot to gain from more trade liberalisation, but argues that it made enough concessions when it joined the WTO in 2001.

Ms Wanlin describes the lack of active support from businesses as another major handicap in the Doha talks. This is partly due to the fact that big companies have already managed to find ways to enter highly protected markets in developing countries, and thus would benefit only marginally from a successful trade round. The main beneficiaries are likely to be the small- and medium-sized enterprises which lack the resources to effectively lobby governments or international institutions. Many EU and US businesses also know that regional or bilateral trade agreements offer another effective route to gaining greater market access abroad.

She notes that the Hong Kong summit will take place around the same time as the December European Council, which will discuss the EU budget for the period from 2007 to 2013. Most EU member states are calling for the UK to give up its ‘rebate’ – a discount originally designed as compensation for the relatively high contribution of the British to the EU budget. But British public opinion is in no mood to accept a substantial reduction of the rebate, unless the EU also commits to a radical overhaul of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

Read the full version of the policy brief