Wegweisende Innovationen der Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien

Dieser Bericht untersucht zehn Technologien, deren
Aussichten auf weit verbreitete Nutzung in diesem Jahrzehnt
am besten sind: Internet-Telefonie (VoIP),
fortentwickelte Mobilfunktechnologien (WLAN, UMTS,
WiMax), Biometrie, Quantenkryptografie, automatisiertes
Architekturgetriebenes Programmieren (MDA), dezentrales
Speichern (ILM), dezentrale Datenverarbeitung (‚Grid
Computing‘), Open Source
Software, ‚Outsourcing‘ und
Funketikett (RFID). Für die deutsche Fassung,
klicken Sie 
hier

. 

The following is extracted from the
Deutsche Bank Research paper:

 „Rising stars in information and
communication technology“
,

  by Stefan Heng (+49 69 910-31774 –
stefan.heng@db.com)

The 
quest for more efficiency and
security

is reflected in the economy as a whole, but
especially in product and process innovations
in information and communication technology
(ICT). In this report we examine the ten
concepts considered to have the brightest
prospects in the business segment in terms of
their potential to gain widespread use during
this decade. The concepts are: 
internet telephony

(VoIP), 
advanced mobile radio
technology

(WLAN, UMTS, WiMax), biometrics, quantum
cryptography, Model Driven Architecture
(MDA), 
decentralised storage

(ILM), 
decentralised data processing

(grid computing), 
open-source software, outsourcing, and
radio tagging

(RFID). 

Vendors of innovative products and processes
in information and communication technology can
build on growth rates that are clearly above
average. The 
three most promising concepts are
biometrics, opensource software and radio
tagging

. However, we believe the public overestimates
the potential of internet telephony and grid
computing. 

The higher security risks since September
11, 2001 have led to a massive increase in the
demand for biometric products in the public and
private sectors. 
Between 2002 and 2010, the worldwide
market for biometric products is likely to grow
by a factor of 40

to over EUR 5 bn. 

The allure of the decentralised 
open-source approach is its capacity to
revolutionise the software market

. In view of both security and after-sales
service, lingering reservations about
open-source are expected to decrease as the
concept becomes increasingly widespread. The
idea enjoys support from different directions,
which underlines the significance of
open-source for the whole IT market. 

Radio tagging offers the possibility of
creating a data profile for goods in order to
improve flows of information along the value
chain. The application possibilities for radio
tagging are far more than simply a replacement
for bar codes in wholesale and retail. With the
resolution of pressing requirements in the
areas of technology, regulation and marketing,
the overall 
market for radio tagging in Europe
could grow 10-fold over the next six
years

to reach EUR 4 bn. 

The 
success of internet telephony in the
mass market is questionable

. The insufficient cost advantage, limited
reachability of service numbers and the fear of
electronic eavesdropping have a sustained
dampening effect on its prospects. 

Commercial 
success of grid computing is
uncertain

in view of the low actual number of upcoming
projects. 

To read the full research,
click   
here