100 jours avant Copenhague : faut-il paniquer ?

Il est possible que la meilleure issue à espérer soit un accord [lors des négociations internationales à venir sur un successeur du Protocole de Kyoto sur le changement climatique] à Copenhague pour continuer sérieusement les négociations, affirme Christian Egenhofer, chargé de recherches au Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), dans un article de septembre.

« Is it time to panic?, » Egenhofer asks, before answering: « It has long been clear that there is a wide spectrum of possible outcomes. »

« With less than 100 days before the crucial global climate change conference opens in Copenhagen, negotiations remain stuck, » he writes.

According to the analyst, « it seems now that the outcome will tend more towards […] a general political deal where countries commit to an agreement and outline the main elements ».

« It has long been clear that the United States will not be ready by the time of Copenhagen, despite the important policy shift on climate change under the Obama administration, » Egenhofer states.

Moreover, « other developed countries, such as Australia and Japan, are also struggling to come up with an ambitious yet domestically acceptable target, » he adds.

Similarly, even though « many developing countries have put in place – often very ambitious – domestic climate change policies, they tend to delay when it comes to making a commitment in international negotiations, » he deplores.

« It is important that the developed countries, led by the EU, do not accede too easily to the less well-founded demands of developing countries, just to be able to declare a political victory, » Egenhofer concludes.