Changements structurels, productivité et emploi dans les nouveaux Etats membres
Cette note, rédigée par Peter Havlik et publiée par l'Institut viennois d'études économiques internationales (wiiw), offre un aperçu des développements structurels à long terme dans les nouveaux Etats membres d'Europe centrale et orientale.
Cette note, rédigée par Peter Havlik et publiée par
l’Institut viennois d’études économiques internationales (wiiw),
offre un aperçu des développements structurels à long terme dans
les nouveaux Etats membres d’Europe centrale et orientale.
With the transformational recession of the early 1990s left
behind, the majority of the NMS embarked on a path of rapid
economic growth during the past decade. They have experienced an
impressive productivity catching-up, both at the macroeconomic
level and in the manufacturing industry in particular. Yet in most
NMS the growth of labour productivity went hand in hand with
declining employment, and even with considerable job losses in the
manufacturing industry. The structural changes observed during the
past decade brought the NMS¿ economies nearer to the economic
structure observed in the EU-15, but the shifts of labour among
individual sectors or industries themselves did not have any marked
impact on aggregate productivity growth. Similar to the EU-15, the
recent productivity catching-up observed in the NMS resulted
overwhelmingly from across-the-board productivity improvements in
individual sectors of the economy while employment shifts among
sectors had only a negligible effect on aggregate productivity
growth. Notwithstanding fast productivity catching-up, the
estimated productivity levels indicate that NMS are in this respect
still lagging considerably behind the EU 15 economies, implying a
huge catching-up potential. The estimated elasticity of employment
to production growth is low in all NMS; the recently observed and
expected rates of economic growth will in all likelihood not be
sufficient for the creation of additional jobs. The required
further productivity convergence with the EU-15 may thus be in
conflict with the urgently needed employment growth in the NMS; net
job creation occurred in just a few services sectors and could not
offset the job losses in agriculture and industry.
