Gloire et décadence de la géopolitique d’aujourd’hui

L’Ouest doit repenser son discours s’il veut renforcer son rang dans le monde, écrit Charles Grant, le directeur du Centre for European Reform, dans une étude de juin.

« Both the global economic crisis and the arrival of Barack Obama are transforming the geopolitical landscape, » he states.

Grant explains that many Europeans and Asians are predicting a decline in the relative power of the US, « partly because its model of capitalism is being blamed for the crisis ». Moreover, « with the Chinese and Indian economies coming through the global downturn with quite strong growth rates, they say, power is shifting to Asia ».

But the CER director finds such arguments unconvincing. « Several factors are likely to boost American soft power, » he explains.

His paper gives three reasons for this:

• The US will probably lead the world out of recession;
• the heavy involvement of the federal government in the economy is showing other countries that the US model of capitalism is no longer so different, and;
• Obama’s fresh approach to foreign policy is generating much goodwill.

From all this, Grant concludes that « a growth in the authority of both the US and China seems more plausible than a power shift to Asia ».

« The recession will not enhance Europe’s power and prestige, » he continues. « Europe’s recovery looks like being very slow […] and in the longer run [Europeans] may have to worry about the ability of South European countries suffering from declining competitiveness to stay in the euro, » citing Greece as an example.

« The EU’s enlargement process has virtually stopped, while uncertainty over the fate of the Lisbon Treaty means that the Union remains focused on its institutions, » he adds.

« Another reason why the crisis may strengthen the relative power of the US is that the countries it has most problems with [i.e. Russia, Iran and Venezuela] are doing particularly badly, » writes Grant.

« One positive result of the recession is likely to be better global governance, » he underlines. « The G20 has emerged as a useful body with more legitimacy than the G8. »

« One negative result is that the world’s poorest countries will suffer most from the shrinkage of international capital flows, » he warns.

« The emphasis on democracy, human rights and deregulation is no longer so compelling in many parts of the world. A new narrative should not forget liberty, but needs to focus on social justice and security, both within countries and in relations between them, » Grant concludes.