La Commission Barroso se décompose-t-elle afin la fin de son mandat ?

La Commission Barroso se décompose-t-elle avant l’heure ? Telle est la question soulevée par un commentaire du European Policy Centre en mars.

« With the resignation of Markos Kyprianou and the one-month ‘unpaid leave’ taken by Franco Frattini, two members of the College have departed within less than a month », « more than a year before the end of their term of office, » the authors Antonio Missiroli and Jérôme Bacquias point out. 

Kyprianou has gone back to « the country he knows best » to become the new Cypriot foreign minister in the wake of last month’s presidential elections, while Frattini has also left, initially for a month, to participate in Italy’s electoral campaign. He may « choose not to return to the Commission if he is offered a top ministerial post, » the authors believe. 

The EPC paper argues that a « comparable trend emerged in the final months of the Prodi Commission (1999-2004), » when several commissioners left their positions to take up high-profile jobs in their home countries. 

The good news for the Commission(ers), the authors observe, is that « there seems to be political life – and at a very high level in government – after a term in Brussels ». Commissioners « appear to be in strong demand, which may be a sign that direct experience of EU affairs (both political and administrative) is better appreciated at the national level, » they speculate. 

« The bad news is that the Commission increasingly resembles an outgoing US administration, in which the departure of its most prominent initial members towards the end of its term – ‘deserting the sinking ship’, generally to snap up highly lucrative jobs in the private sector – is considered almost a fact of life ». 

Looking back over the EU’s history, the authors point out that there has been no shortage of early ‘quitters’ at the Berlaymont: « In terms of sheer numbers, the Italians and the French hold the European record. » 

This may in part reflect the fact that the founding member states have had more commissioners over time than the others. It is nevertheless « striking » that virtually no British or German Commissioner has ever left the College ahead of time, states the EPC paper. 

Missiroli and Bacquias go on to argue that « political career patterns and incentives differ a great deal from country to country, » adding that « the Commission of decades past is not comparable to the Barroso team » (which has the highest proportion of former prime ministers and foreign ministers ever). 

« But it is legitimate to wonder whether, at this particular moment, these early departures highlight a broader sense of uncertainty – over personal prospects, of course, but also over the future of the Commission itself, » they state. 

The paper concludes: « Uncertainty is on the rise at Commission HQ in Rue de la Loi, along with a slight sense of malaise for an institution in need of aggiornamento – to borrow from the native languages of the serial ‘quitters’. »