Réflexions sur les élections européennes en Finlande

L’importance des élections européennes pour la politique nationale ne devrait pas être surestimée, a écrit Aaretti Siitonen, un chercheur à l’Institut finlandais des Affaires internationales, dans un article paru en mai.

« The European elections can always be seen as a function of domestic politics, » but their role in this regard should not be overstated, according to Siitonen.

Rivalry between Finland’s two major governing parties, the Centre Party and the centre-right National Coalition Party, is deepening. The Coalition Party « is now for the first time in its history the most popular political party in Finland, » he writes.

« National sentiment is on the rise in Finland, » he continues, reflected in the governing Centre Party’s election rhetoric: « In his May Day speech, Prime Minister Vanhanen denounced EU flags and hymns, saying that Finns are impressed rather by having a place at the table where decisions are made. »

« This is typical of the Centre Party’s emphasis on the practical benefits of EU membership, » Siitonen adds.

« The Eurosceptic role in Finland is assumed mainly by the True Finns Party, a national-conservative movement, which is eating away at both the Social Democrats (SDP) and Centre Party support, » he writes.

The SDP is « the third largest party in Finland ». It « stands to gain from the economic crisis only if they can offer credible alternatives to current policies, » he says.

« Finland previously held 14 seats in the EP, but now, with only 13, it seems likely that at least one of the smaller parties will not attain a representative, » he adds.

« The Green League […] is set to retain its seat or even gain one seat, whereas the Swedish People’s Party and the Left Alliance, whose MEPs are not standing for re-election, will certainly lose their seats, » Siitonen predicts.

Finland comprises one constituency with an open-ballot voting system. « This makes the elections less party-centred than in countries with closed or ordered ballots, such as France or Sweden, » he says. 

Low turnout

In the 2004 poll, turnout in Finland was only 41.1% (compared with an average of 46% in the 25 EU countries). « This was, however, a considerable improvement on the 1999 elections, where Finnish turnout was a meagre 31.4%, » the researcher writes.

« The EU is facing a crisis of confidence and legitimacy. The elections will reverse or strengthen this trend, » he says.

« A low turnout in the European elections would not be a catastrophe for the EU, but it would be likely to further hamper the perceived legitimacy, not only of the Parliament itself, but also of the supranational nature of EU decision-making, » argues the paper.

« Thirteen MEPs will be chosen from Finland, but if turnout remains low, their mandates will be less meaningful and the elections’ implications for domestic politics lessened, » Siitonen concludes.