Vote irlandais, avenir de l’Europe : quatre options suite au « non »

Au lendemain du rejet irlandais du traité de Lisbonne, Dominik Hierlemann envisage quatre options pour l’avenir dans un rapport publié en juin 2008 pour le Bertelsmannstiftung:

• Repeat the referendum: Ireland would issue a special declaration about « national sovereignty », thus preventing other EU member states’ ratifications from becoming « invalid ». Meanwhile the Irish would be asked to vote again, but the author believes that it is unlikely they will « change their minds by the time the second referendum comes along ».
• Full renegotiation leading to a new treaty: Other member states may see this as « back-pedalling, » while it could be a politically « risky » way of determining the Treaty’s contents. Hierlemann calls for a « Europe-wide referendum on the new treaty » to be held, whereby the « dual majority » principle would be conceivable if « at least fifty per cent of the EU electorate were in favour » of the new text.  
• Keep the Treaty of Nice: This text « would remain the basis for business » with « minimal changes ». Considering the number of EU member states is likely to increase in the future, the paper underlines the need for a « different decision-making mechanism » based on the Nice Treaty. Hierlemann argues that it is necessary for member states and Brussels’ institutions to « work out every single amendment of the institutional structure » if Europe is to be assertive in the face of « great powers ». He suggests creating a European Minister for Foreign Affairs even without the treaty, arguing that « new treaties are not required to do this ».   
• Establish a new supranational union, forming a ‘core’ Europe: This would involve the co-existence of the « old EU » based on the Nice Treaty and a new Union formed by the « pro-deepening member states ». Hierlemann warns of the consequences of « a separate European core, » claiming it would lead to the « formation of two competing camps, » « exerting political pressure ». 

The paper questions which candidates would take part in this core Union considering that some countries like France or Germany are not willing to « surrender more sovereignty to a supranational level ». 

Hierlemann believes that a « project-based Europe » is more realistic than establishing a new union as it « would not lead to competing blocs ». 

He concludes that « European policymakers have very little room for manoeuvre » and recommends that current draft treaty be retained. 

The author calls on heads of state and government to make clear that the ratification process will continue until completed. Once ratified, a « special declaration » could be added to the Lisbon Treaty before it is submitted again to the Irish electorate, Hierlemann argues.