Der merkwürdige Nachbar der EU: Zeit für eine neue Belarus-Politik

Dieser neue Policy Brief des Centre for European Reform (CER), der von Charles Grant und Mark Leonard verfasst wurde, argumentiert für eine neue EU-Belarus-Politik. Die EU sollte dem Regime Reformanreize bieten, gleichzeitig aber klarstellen, dass sie auf weitere Unterdrückung mit einer knallharten Antwort reagieren würde. Die EU sollte die Zivilgesellschaft stärker unterstützen und neue Wege der Unterstützung von NGOs finden. Die EU müsse außerdem einen Dialog mit Russland darüber eingehen, wie die Reformagenda innerhalb von Belarus am besten unterstützt werden kann.

CER Summary

• On March 19th the people of Belarus – a small but strategically important country – vote in a presidential election. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is certain to claim a landslide victory. Although the election has not been free and fair, widespread popular protests – of the sort that led to Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’ – are unlikely. 
• The EU’s current policy of ‘conditional engagement’ has failed to improve the situation in Belarus. The EU has withheld favours and cut off contacts, but the regime has become steadily more authoritarian. 
• The EU needs a new policy. It should offer big incentives to encourage the regime to reform, but also make clear any further repression would provoke a tough response. It should step up its efforts to support civil society and overhaul its methods for aiding NGOs. 
• European leaders should tell Russia that the EU has a legitimate interest in how Belarus is governed. But the EU should also stress that it does not see Belarus as a pawn in a geopolitical game. Both the EU and Russia would benefit from a stable, prosperous and democratic Belarus.

To read the policy brief in full, visit the Centre for European Reform website.