La Turquie, actif ou passif pour la PESD ?

Une éventuelle entrée de la Turquie au sein de l’UE aurait au moins
autant d’impact sur la PESD que le récent élargissement de l’Union
à dix nouveaux Etats membres, écrivent Michael
Emerson et Nathalie Tocci
dans un article publié par le Centre
for European Policy Studies.

Turkey is almost completely surrounded by a set of regions that
represent the EU’s prime security concerns, from the residual
instability of the Balkans to the west, the Caucasus, Central Asia,
Iraq and Iran to the east, and Israel-Palestine and the
Mediterranean to the south. The Turkish accession would mark the
end of the EU’s enlargement to the east, while at the same time
opening new dimensions to the EU’s relationship with the Middle
East and Eurasia to the south and east – a region that is unstable
and unpredictable. 

The potential advantages for the EU in integrating Turkey as a
foreign and security policy actor are several. Objective factors
lie in concrete logistical and geographical advantages, coupled
with military capabilities and civilian human resources that can be
readily deployed in the Eurasian and Middle Eastern neighbourhoods.
More subjective but perhaps even more important are the prospects
for the Turkish experience to be viewed as a positive precedent by
its neighbours. This general statement has a number of versions,
some of which have been recently tried but failed (e.g., the
pan-Turkic experiment in Central Asia in the early 1990s). Other
variants are also likely to provoke adverse reactions, such as
over-selling the Turkish model of multi-party democracy and
secularism in parts of the Arab world. Not only does Turkey’s
democracy still have important shortcomings, but Turkey’s Arab
neighbours, in view of the legacy of Ottoman rule, react adversely
to arguments suggesting their emulation of Turkey’s political and
economic system. 

More subtle arguments, however, seem full of promise. The
Turkish case suggests that the values of democracy, human rights,
the rule of law and secularism are not specific to any particular
culture or religion. On the contrary, these are universal values
with no geographical, cultural or religious limitations. Rather
than representing a static model of democracy, the continuing
process of Turkey’s democratisation could act as a source of
inspiration to its neighbours. The same is also true of the gradual
transformation of Turkey’s security and foreign policy culture.
While in the past Turkish foreign policy had focused on the
importance of military security and balance-of-power politics, it
now increasingly appreciates the value of civilian instruments of
law, economics and diplomacy, as well as multilateral settings in
which to pursue its aims. Related to this, the Turkish example
demonstrates the value of European integration as a key external
anchor to domestic processes of modernisation. 

The final point concerns the EU’s own model. Turkey’s EU
accession and integration would vindicate the EU’s ambitions to
represent an inclusive project and a multi-cultural community of
values. If the EU and Turkey were to make the best use of their
joint opportunities in the foreign policy domain, Turkey would
build on the advantages of its comparative openness as well as
proximity to the Middle Eastern and Eurasian neighbourhoods. The EU
and Turkey could thus devise an original blend of openness towards
their southern and eastern neighbours, with the model of a
graduated external border of the EU. Nevertheless Turkey would need
to be reassured that this would not in any way deprive it of normal
political rights as a future member state. To have a graduated
border regime that adds value is not to be confused with the
negative connotations of a second-class member state. 

Finally, an integration of EU and Turkish strategic cultures in
the context of the present turmoil in the Middle East and
transatlantic discord over Iraq could carry a message to Washington
as well, supporting a shift back towards multilateralism,
moderation and the rule of law. 

To read the full text of the article, visit the CEPS website.