Les relations UE-Russie après la proposition de septembre sur la libéralisation de l’énergie

D’après une nouvelle étude menée par la CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates), une « crise de confiance » grandissante menace les relations entre la Russie et l’Europe au sujet du gaz naturel. Mais le désaccord ne se traduira pas nécessairement pas une « crise » concernant l’approvisionnement futur.

The September study – entitled « Securing the Future: Making Russian-European Gas Interdependence Work » – identifies « fundamental changes » in Russia, Europe and the gas industry itself that are « unsettling the relationship ». 

Gas interdependency issues between Russia and Europe are « integral » to their economies and vital for « competition, security and environmental sustainability » reasons. 

CERA believes that « sustainability, efficiency and security » of EU energy supply will not be best achieved by reducing dependence on Russian gas, but rather by the creation of a « carefully and cooperatively managed interdependence between Europe and Russia ». 

The « fundamental changes » that are central to the current rising anxieties are: 

• Changes in Russia: Large-scale investment in gas fields and pipelines « for the first time since the Soviet era » is required. A strong economy has « bolstered » a central state which sees energy as a key element in international relations. 
• Changes in Europe: The new EU agenda includes a strong push towards liberalisation in the gas and power sectors, with environmental sustainability a key policy – prioritising renewables, energy conservation and lower emissions. 
• Changes in the gas industry: The gas industry is becoming global, not regional. 

The main risks include: 

• Europe: concerns over transit risks, ‘over-dependencies’, future gas supply and export monopoly. 
• Russia: regulatory risks from EU liberalisation policies, discrimination against Russian interests in Europe and extension of EU policies outside the Union. 

CERA conclude that exporting Russian gas to Europe is « cost-effective, reliable and beneficial for all parties ». 

The report recommends that the following steps be taken to achieve « realistic and sustainable interdependence » between Europe and Russia: 

• Careful assessment of the implications of the September EU liberalisation proposals for security of supply and environmental sustainability. 
• Prepare for the Russian government to review the gas industry after the 2008 election. 
• Respect national sovereignty to create favourable conditions for cross-border investment and manage third-country transit issues. 
• Cooperation on transit risk should include the creation of a multilateral consortium with Ukraine to manage its pipeline and storage system. 
• Allow the markets to do their work.