Machtprobe in der Ukraine
Der derzeitige Regierungschef der Ukraine wird vermutlich als nächster Präsident ausgerufen. Es werde jedoch zu einem unerbittlichen Kräftemessen mit der Opposition kommen, so Ivan Lozowy in Transitions Online.
Der derzeitige Regierungschef der Ukraine wird vermutlich als
nächster Präsident ausgerufen. Es werde jedoch zu einem
unerbittlichen Kräftemessen mit der Opposition kommen,
so Ivan Lozowy in Transitions
Online.
It now appears certain that Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych
will soon be declared Ukraine’s new president.
With 99.38 percent of votes counted, figures from the Central
Election Commission (CEC) show Yanukovych with 49.42 percent of the
vote, compared with 46.70 percent for the opposition candidate
Viktor Yushchenko, in the race to replace outgoing President Leonid
Kuchma.
These preliminary results, based on telephone and e-mail notices
sent by the 225 regional election commissions, are at odds with all
of the major exit polls conducted on election day, 21 November.
One poll, organized by the Kyiv International Institute of
Sociology and the Razumkov Center, showed Yushchenko with an 11
percentage point lead, 54 percent to 43 percent.
Another independent exit poll–the People’s Choice poll,
conducted jointly by the Socis and Social Monitoring polling
organizations–put the gap at just three points, but again
indicated that Yushchenko would be the next president (with 49.7
percent, against 46.7 percent for Yanukovych).
A third poll, taken by the Ukrainian Institute for Social
Research, was invalidated because too many voters refused to
participate, compromising the quality of the statistics. The
polling agency also reported that it had been prohibited from
taking samples by the heads of local election commissions.
STATISTICAL ODDITIES
Trends in recent weeks had also appeared to favor Yushchenko, with
the Socialist Party and a number of smaller players endorsing him
and the powerful Communist Party refusing to endorse
Yanukovych.
But when election officials announced late on election night
that, with two-thirds of the votes counted, Yanukovych enjoyed a
four-point lead, the opposition began again to predict that CEC
officials would ensure that the government’s candidate would
win.
Certainly, there are some huge statistical oddities in the
results. Turnout across the country was a massive 80 percent, the
highest in Ukraine’s history. A big vote was expected because of
the importance ascribed to the elections and because, in the first
round, 75 percent of eligible Ukrainians had cast votes.
But some of the turnout figures immediately raised suspicions.
In Donetsk, 97 percent of voters apparently turned out. In Luhansk,
the figure was 90 percent. Both are regions that back Yanukovych.
Fear of Yushchenko, a man portrayed as a nationalist in some very
inflammatory campaign materials, is considerable in these regions,
but the Donetsk figure in particular is one that most statisticians
would say is impossible.
Inevitably, then, the opposition is using these figures to
support their accusation that officials in these regions rigged the
elections.
Such accusations of official bias in the election commissions
received some added credence when, after the vote, the head of the
CEC, Serhiy Kivalov, met privately with Yanukovych but refused to
receive Yushchenko. Kivalov claimed Yushchenko was trying to talk
„from a position of force.“
Kivalov had already drawn criticism after the first round for
taking the maximum 10 days allowed by law before declaring the
final result. On that occasion, Yushchenko was declared the winner
by half a percentage point (39.87 percent versus 39.32
percent).
